Non-dealer financial institutions, including smaller banks, institutional investors and hedge funds, have grown into the largest and most active counterparty segment. The once clear-cut divide between inter-dealer and customer trading is gone. Technological change has increased the connectivity of participants, bringing down search costs. A new form of "hot potato" trading has emerged where dealers no longer play an exclusive role. This article explores the anatomy of the global foreign exchange FX market, drawing on the Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Ketosis and Derivatives Forex Activity in short, "the Triennial". The Triennial covers 53 countries and represents the most comprehensive effort to collect detailed and globally consistent information on FX trading activity and market structure. We study the structural drivers and trends behind the growing FX volumes. New counterparty information collected in the Triennial provides a levels more detailed picture than before of the trading patterns of non-dealer financial institutions such as lower-tier banks, institutional investors and hedge funds and their contribution to turnover. Improved data on execution methods further enable us to give a better description of the current state of market structure. Non-dealer financial institutions were the levels drivers of FX turnover growth over the past three years, confirming the trend in prior surveys Graph 1right-hand panel. The inter-dealer market, by contrast, has grown more slowly, and the trading volume of non-financials mostly corporates has actually contracted. These trends are most visible in the main FX trading centres, London and New York, where close to two thirds of all deals involved non-dealer financial counterparties. The climb in FX turnover between and appears to have been mostly a by-product of the increasing diversification of international asset portfolios rather than a rise in interest record FX as an asset class in its own right. By contrast, returns on currency carry trades narrowly defined and other quantitative FX investment strategies were quite unattractive in the run-up to the survey, suggesting that they were unlikely to have been significant drivers of turnover. The FX market has become less dealer-centric, to the point where there is no longer a distinct inter-dealer-only market. A key driver has been the proliferation of prime brokerage see glossary at the end of the articleallowing smaller banks, hedge funds and other players to participate more actively. The evolving market structure accommodates a larger diversity, near high-frequency traders, using computers to implement trading strategies at the millisecond frequency, to the private individual retail FX investor. Trading costs have continued to drop, thus attracting new participants and making more strategies profitable. This trend started with the major currencies, and more recently reached previously less liquid currencies, especially emerging market currencies. Today's market structure involves a more active participation of non-dealer financial institutions in the trading process. Trading activity remains fragmented, but aggregator platforms allow ketosis users and dealers to levels to a variety of trading venues and counterparties of their choice. With more counterparties connected to each other, search costs have decreased and the velocity of trading has increased. The traditional market structure based on dealer-customer relationships has given way to a trading network topology where both banks and non-banks act as liquidity providers. This is effectively a form of "hot potato" trading, but where dealers are no longer necessarily at the centre. In the next section, we start with a bird's eye view of the main facts near shed light on FX turnover growth since We then put the trading patterns of financial counterparties and recent changes in market structure under the microscope. Finally, we explore underlying drivers of FX trading volumes between and ketosis greater detail. Trading in currency markets ketosis increasingly dominated by financial institutions outside the dealer community "other financial institutions" in the survey terminology. These non-dealer financial institutions are very heterogeneous in their trading motives, patterns and horizons. They include lower-tier banks, institutional investors eg pension funds and mutual fundshedge funds, high-frequency trading HFT firms and official sector financial institutions eg central banks or sovereign wealth funds. Reasons for their shrinkage include the sluggish recovery from the crisis, low cross-border merger and acquisition activity and reduced hedging needs, as major currency pairs mostly traded in a narrow range over the past three years. Another key factor is more sophisticated management of FX exposures by multinational companies. Firms are increasingly centralising their corporate treasury function, which allows hedging costs to be reduced by netting positions internally. The declining importance of inter-dealer trading is the flip side of the growing role of non-dealer financial institutions Table 1. The primary reason is that major dealing banks net more trades internally. Due to higher industry concentration, top-tier dealers are able to match more customer trades directly on their own books. This reduces the need to offload inventory imbalances and hedge risk via the traditional inter-dealer market. Trading activity since has risen fairly evenly across instruments Graph 1left-hand panel, and Table 1. Non-dealer financial institutions have become the most active participants in currency markets. Who exactly are these players? What do they trade and why near they trade FX? With the new and more granular description of the group of non-dealer financial counterparties in the Triennial, we can now shed light on these important yet hitherto unanswered questions. A significant fraction of dealers' levels with non-dealer financial customers is with lower-tier banks. Smaller banks do ketosis engage in market-making, but mostly record as clients of the large FX dealing banks. The most significant non-bank FX market participants are professional asset management firms, captured under the two labels "institutional investors" eg mutual funds, pension funds and insurance companies and "hedge funds". Institutional investors differ from hedge funds not only in terms of their investment styles, horizons and primary trade motives, but also the mix record instruments they trade. These counterparties - also often labelled "real money investors" - frequently transact in FX markets, as a by-product of rebalancing portfolios of core assets, such as international bonds and equities. The management of currency exposure is often passive, requiring only a periodic resetting of the hedges, but can also take a more active form, resembling strategies of hedge funds. Options provide them with a convenient way to take leveraged positions to express their directional views on exchange rate movements and volatility. Some of the more actively trading hedge funds trading proprietary trading firms also specialise in algorithmic and high-frequency strategies in spot markets. This small share notwithstanding, these institutions can have a strong impact on prices when they are in the market. The trading of non-dealer financials such as institutional investors and hedge funds is concentrated in a few locations, in particular London and New York, where major dealers have their main FX desks Volumes 2. Dealers' trading with non-dealer financial customers exceeds that with non-financial clients by a factor greater than 10 in these centres Graph 2centre panelmuch higher than in other key FX trading locations, eg Singapore, Tokyo and Hong Kong SAR. Investors seeking best trade execution often prefer to trade via sales and trading desks volumes glossary in London or New York even though these investors may have their head office in other time zones. This is because liquidity in currency markets is typically highest at the London open and in the overlapping hours of London and New York. Prime brokerage has been a crucial driver of the concentration of trading, as such arrangements are typically offered via major investment banks in London or New York Graph 2right-hand panel. Through a prime brokerage relationship with a dealer, non-dealer financials gain access to institutional platforms such as Reuters Matching, EBS or other electronic communications networks ECNs and can trade anonymously with dealers and other counterparties in the prime broker's name. The rise in electronic and algorithmic trading also contributed significantly to the concentration in centres. For certain types of algorithmic trading, speed advantages at the millisecond level are critical. Such high-frequency trading requires co-location close to the main servers of electronic platforms typically in the vicinity of London and in New Jersey. The trend towards more active FX trading by non-dealer financial institutions and a concentration in financial centres is particularly visible for emerging market EM currencies. A decade ago, EM currency trading mostly involved local counterparties on at least one side of the transaction eg McCauley and Scatigna Now, trading of EM currencies is increasingly conducted offshore Graph 3left-hand panel. It has especially been non-dealer financials often trading out of financial centres that have driven this internationalisation trend Graph 3centre panel. The ease and costs of trading minor currencies have improved significantly in this process. Transaction costs in EM currencies, measured by bid-ask spreads, have steadily declined and converged to almost the levels for developed currencies Graph 3right-hand panel. As liquidity in EM currencies has improved, these markets have attracted the attention of volumes investors. The strong growth is particularly visible in the case of the Mexican peso, whose market share now exceeds that of several well established advanced economy currencies. China set itself to promote more international use of its currency and introduced offshore renminbi CNH in Ehlers and Packer The growing participation of non-dealer financial institutions has been facilitated by the availability of alternative electronic platforms. The FX market of the s was a two-tier market, with the inter-dealer market as clearly separate turf. There is no distinct inter-dealer market any more, but a coexistence of various trading venues where also non-banks actively engage in market-making. In today's market structure, electronic trading forex. This market-wide presence, together with its slowing expansion, suggests that electronic trading has matured. The voice contact may, for instance, provide advice on alternative order execution strategies or ways to implement a trade idea. It may also help to avoid high-frequency traders as a counterparty, or to ensure execution in a busy market. The emerging microstructure caters to the demands of a more diverse set of market participants. Non-financial institutions mostly prefer direct contact with their relationship bank, either via the phone or via a single-bank platform. Financial customers are less loyal to their dealer than non-financials and have more dispersed trading patterns Table 3. They often trade either directly with dealers electronically eg via Bloomberg Tradebook or direct electronic price streamsor indirectly via multi-bank platforms and electronic brokerage systems that were previously the exclusive venues of inter-dealer trading EBS and Reuters Matching. The ketosis away from a clearly delineated inter-dealer market is reflected in the execution methods data in the Triennial. There are two main reasons for this shift. First, as a response to competition from multi-bank platforms eg FXall, Currenex or HotspotEBS and Reuters opened up to hedge funds and other customers via prime brokerage arrangements in andrespectively. These platforms became active arenas for proprietary trading firms specialised in high-frequency trading. Second, due to increased concentration of FX flows in a handful of major banks, top-tier banks have been able to net more flows internally. Near internalising trades, they can benefit from the bid-ask spread without trading much risk, as offsetting customer flows come in almost continuously. As these banks have effectively become deep liquidity pools, their need to manage inventory via traditional inter-dealer venues is much reduced. The trend towards flow internalisation left its traces in the data. Traditional inter-dealer venues EBS and Reuters Matching have seen their market share shrink. The flip side is that dealers try to attract flows to their single-bank platforms to benefit further from internalisation. We now explore possible factors behind near rise in FX trading volumes in more detail, from both a macro and a micro perspective. When interpreting the Triennial, it is necessary to bear in mind that the survey month was probably the most active period of FX trading ever recorded. The monetary policy regime shift by the Bank of Japan in early April triggered a phase of exceptionally high turnover across asset classes. In the months that followed, the rise in yen trading levels reversed Bech and Sobrun To gain a better understanding of the drivers levels FX volumes between andit is important to take a closer look at the trading motives of non-dealer financials, which have grown into the most dominant players. One possibility is that FX turnover rose due to growing interest in FX as a separate asset class; another is that trading volumes in currency markets grew as a by-product of international portfolio investments in other asset classes. It is also relevant to elicit the implications of the evolving market structure, characterised by an increased participation of non-dealer financial institutions, greater diversity and lower search costs. Market participants generally regard FX as an asset class in its own right. To exploit profit opportunities, currency hedge funds and overlay managers see glossaryfor instance, frequently pursue quantitative strategies that involve the simultaneous purchase and sale of multiple currencies eg Menkhoff trading al The most ketosis and best known is the carry trade, which seeks to exploit interest rate differentials across a range of countries. Another record strategy is momentum trading, a bet on the continuation of exchange rate trends. A less known value strategy involves buying currencies perceived to be undervalued and selling those perceived to be overvalued, where the fundamental value can be determined by, for instance, a long-run equilibrium concept like purchasing power parity. Such simple strategies have been profitable for some time Graph volumesleft-hand panelattracting new entrants into the market. In particular, the carry trade provided investors with attractive and not very volatile returns in the run-up to the crisis. The and surveys also reported that turnover growth largely reflected the activity of investors engaged in such strategies Galati and MelvinGalati and Heath It is unlikely, however, that quantitative FX strategies were the main drivers of turnover growth this time. Interest rate differentials have shrunk, as many central banks volumes been easing monetary policy. Major exchange forex mostly traded in a narrow range, characterised by temporary bouts of volatility and sudden policy actions, eg during the European sovereign debt crisis. Neither carry trades narrowly defined nor momentum trades performed well in these conditions Graph 4left-hand panel. Consequently, currency hedge funds suffered significant outflows over this period Graph 4right-hand panelwith some funds going out of business. A more compelling explanation for the stronger FX activity of non-dealer financials is the rise in international diversification of asset portfolios, triggering currency trading as a by-product. Over the past three years, equities provided investors with attractive returns and emerging market bond spreads dropped, while issuance in riskier bond market segments eg local currency emerging market bonds soared. Not only did this give rise to the need to trade FX in larger quantities and to rebalance portfolios more frequently, but it also went hand in hand with a greater demand for hedging currency exposures. Among the currencies of advanced economies, FX turnover picked up the most for countries that also saw significant equity price increases. In fact, for these currencies the participation of hedge funds was particularly strong Graph 5centre panel. Factors at the micro level have also contributed to the growth record FX volumes in recent years. First, a greater diversity and involvement of non-dealer market participants have increased the scope for more gains from trade; second, a rise in the connectivity among the different players has led to a significant drop in search costs; and third, the velocity of trading has increased due to a proliferation of computerised algorithmic strategies. Recent years have seen a greater diversity of participants active in the global FX market. New types of participants have entered, such as retail investors see boxhigh-frequency trading firms and smaller regional banks eg headquartered in emerging markets. Greater activity by more heterogeneous players expands the universe of trade motives, and extends investment horizons, factors associated with more scope for trading Banerjee and Kremer In the late s, FX trading was mainly the domain of large corporations and financial institutions. Banks charged small "retail" investors prohibitively high transaction costs, as their trades were considered too tiny to be economically interesting. This changed when retail-oriented platforms eg FXCM and OANDA started offering online margin brokerage accounts to private investors aroundstreaming prices from major banks and EBS. Their business model was to bundle many small trades together and lay them off in the inter-dealer market. With trade sizes now much larger, dealers were willing to levels liquidity to such "retail aggregators" at attractive prices. Retail FX trading has since grown quickly. New breakdowns collected in the Triennial show volumes retail trading accounted for 3. The largest retail volumes in absolute terms are in the United States and Volumes. That said, Japan, which has a record active retail segment, is forex biggest in spot Graph Aleft-hand panel. Retail investors differ from institutional investors in their FX trading patterns. They tend to trade directly in relatively illiquid currency pairs rather than via a vehicle currency Graph Atrading panel. The retail figures in the Triennial are lower than near level King and Rime reported based on anecdotal evidence. By design, the Triennial only captures retail trades that ultimately end up with dealers directly or indirectly through retail aggregators. Trades internalised on the platform are not captured. Nevertheless, this is probably not a big problem, as the scope for internalisation on retail platforms is limited. The boundaries of retail are also becoming more trading. Regulatory changes eg leverage limits for margin brokerage accounts for private investors in countries such as the United States have slowed growth in the retail segment and led some platforms volumes target themselves towards professional investors eg small trading funds. Furthermore, the recent poor returns on popular strategies, such as momentum and carry trades, suggest that growth in the retail segment may have slowed. But the scope for internalisation is limited for retail platforms with smaller flows, predominantly in minor currencies. The more fragmented structure that emerged after the demise of the inter-dealer market as the main pool of liquidity could potentially harm trading efficiency by raising search costs and exacerbating adverse selection problems. Yet, one of the most significant innovations to prevent this has been the proliferation of liquidity aggregation. This new form of aggregation effectively links various liquidity pools levels algorithms that direct the order to a preferred venue eg the one with the lowest trading costs. It also allows market participants to pick preferred counterparties and choose from which liquidity providers, both dealers and non-dealers, to receive price quotes. This suggests that search costs, a salient feature of OTC markets Duffiehave significantly decreased. Widespread use of algorithmic techniques and order execution strategies allows the sharing of risk to occur faster and among more market participants throughout near network of connected venues and counterparties. The opening of EBS and Reuters to non-dealers via prime brokerage agreements was a trading catalyst, but today all forex offer ways to connect computer-generated trading. Furthermore, non-dealer financial institutions are increasingly engaged in providing liquidity, as the ease of customising the types of counterparty connections reduces exposure to adverse selection risk. As record consequence, a given imbalance can be matched against the quotes ketosis more liquidity providers, both dealers and non-dealers, and shuffled faster through the network of trading venues via algorithms. This has increased the velocity of trading, and effectively is a new form of hot potato trading, but no longer with only dealers at the centre. Algorithmic trading is essential to the efficiency of this process, and has become pervasive among dealers and end users alike. It is, however, important to distinguish algorithmic from high-frequency trading HFTa subset characterised by extremely short holding periods at the millisecond level and a vast amount of trades often cancelled shortly after submission eg Markets Committee HFT strategies can both exploit tiny, short-lived price discrepancies and provide liquidity at very high frequency benefiting from the bid-ask spread. Speed is crucial, and as competition among HFT firms has increased, additional gains from being fast have diminished. The results of the Triennial Survey confirm a trend in the market already seen in prior surveys: New and more granular breakdowns introduced in the Triennial allow a more detailed analysis of these developments. With more detailed information on non-dealer financial institutions, the linkages between their trading motives and FX turnover growth can be better understood. The once clear-cut two-tier structure of the market, with separate inter-dealer and customer segments, no longer exists. At the same time, the number of ways the different market participants can interconnect has increased significantly, suggesting that search costs and trading costs are now considerably reduced. This has paved the way for financial customers to become liquidity providers alongside dealers. Hence, financial customers contribute to increased volumes not only through their investment decisions, but also by taking part in a new hot potato trading process, where dealers no longer perform an exclusive role. Banerjee, Record and I Kremer Bech, M and J Sobrun Ehlers, T and F Packer Galati, G and A Heath Interpreting the triennial survey ", BIS Quarterly ReviewDecember, pp Galati, G and M Melvin Explaining the Triennial Trading ", BIS Quarterly ReviewDecember, pp King, M and D Rime Kroencke, T, F Schindler and A Schrimpf volumes High frequency trading in the foreign exchange marketBIS, Basel, September. McCauley, R and M Scatigna Menkhoff, L, L Sarno, M Schmeling and A Schrimpf Pojarliev, M and R Levich A new look at currency investingCFA Institute Research Foundation Publications. Automated transactions where a computer algorithm decides the order submission and execution also see "High-frequency trading". The difference in the price the customer receives for selling a security or currency bid and the price at which the customer buys ask. A financial intermediary levels matches counterparties to a transaction without being a party to the trade. The broker can operate electronically electronic broker or by telephone voice broker. Market participants forex act as a customer of the dealer. This need not mean that the specific entity is actually buying or selling. A financial institution that is entering ketosis transactions on both sides of markets, seeking profits by taking risks in those markets and by earning a spread; sometimes also referred to as "sell-side". Electronic communications network ECN: A computer system that facilitates near trading, typically in OTC markets. An algorithmic trading strategy that profits from incremental price movements with frequent, small trades executed in milliseconds for very short investment horizons. HFT is a subset of algorithmic trading. Computer algorithms allow customisation of the price streams, forex both the liquidity provider and the receiving counterparty. An electronic trading system that aggregates and distributes quotes from multiple FX dealers. The management of the currency exposure of international bond and equity portfolios. A service offered by banks that forex a client to source funding and market liquidity near a variety of executing dealers while maintaining a credit relationship, placing collateral and settling with a single entity. A bank that is active as a market-maker by offering to buy or sell contracts and participates as a reporting institution in the Triennial. A term used for online broker-dealers who stream quotes from the top FX dealers to customers individuals and smaller institutions and aggregate a small number of retail trades. Sales and trading desk: FX deals are traditionally arranged via sales desks, which are responsible for maintaining the relationship with the customer. Once an incoming client order is received, it is passed on to the trading desk for execution. A proprietary electronic trading system operated by an FX dealer for the exclusive use of its customers. We greatly appreciate the feedback and insightful discussion with numerous market participants at major FX dealing banks, buy-side institutions and electronic trading platforms. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the BIS or the Central Bank of Norway. This is reflected in the number of products offered by major banks to forex and retail investors SecmenPojarliev and Levich According to market sources, lower-tier banks have become more active in the FX market in recent years. A recent trend for these banks is to source liquidity from top-tier dealers and to effectively "resell" it often referred to as "white-labelling" to smaller, local clients, who are less attractive to top dealers. Some of the FX management can be passive and simply targeted towards removing currency risk exposure. Under more active mandates, the goal is to add extra return to the portfolio and to generate diversification benefits via currency investments. As internalisation ratios increase also for the smaller currency pairs that typically have been traded at Reuters, it is likely that Reuters will also experience a decrease in volume. Such funds are likely to have played a significant role as drivers of yen volumes between late October and April Given the depreciation pressure faced by the yen over this period, real money investors heavily engaged in hedging. In this process, major HFT firms have mostly turned to market-making as their main strategy. This website requires javascript for proper use. Twitter YouTube RSS BIS alerts Sitemap FAQ Contact Log out. Research at the BIS BIS authors Annual Report Quarterly Review BIS Papers Working Papers Committee publications About committee publications Basel Committee on Banking Supervision Committee on the Global Financial System Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures Markets Committee Conferences Asian Office research About Asian Office research Research papers Conferences Research network Americas Office research About Americas Office research Research papers Conferences Research networks Working Group on Financial Stability Study Group on Markets and CB Operations Other publications Discontinued papers series. F31, G12, G15, C42, C Retail trading in the FX market In the late s, FX trading was mainly the domain of large corporations and financial institutions. 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Stock Market Volume Analysis is Unreliable
Stock Market Volume Analysis is Unreliable
4 thoughts on “Forex trading volumes near record levels ketosis”
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